December 8, 2025

Morning Comments:
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Commodities are mixed this morning, in front of Tuesday’s December WASDE report.  There will be no production changes in tomorrow’s report, just demand changes.  The trade is expecting bean exports to be reduced resulting in a larger ending stock number while not much change is expected for corn. Traders expect some small increases in S American production, but we likely won’t see that tomorrow.  Conab will be out with their updates on the 11^th.  The Fed Reserve meeting is fast approaching on Wednesday and the expectation is we’ll see a cut in interest rates.  Canada is reporting PM Carney reached an agreement with Pres Trump and Mexico’s Pres Sheinbaum, signaling trilateral alignment following recent N American discussions. Details were not released.  Top Chinese and U.S. officials held a call Friday to discuss trade, including ongoing efforts to implement an agreement to de-escalate their countries’ trade war.  China’s Vice Premier said the conversation was “in-depth and constructive”.  On Friday, USDA flashed 462,000 mt of bean sales to China for 25/26.  There was also talk more cargos traded off the PNW late last week, but the exact number was a mystery.  China's soybean imports reached their highest November level since 2021, at 8.11 MMT’s up 13.4% from LY.  Since Nov 1^st it appears the Chinese have bought approximately 5.2 MMT of U.S. beans out of the of the 12 MMT’s agreed upon.  December gulf loadings will be the 1st U.S. soy cargos to China since May.  Overall, S. American weather remains favorable for growing conditions/ crop development.  The weather looks to be a bit warmer this week, but many are forecasting a deep dive on temps toward the New Year. Bitter cold temps can certainly result in rail and river logistical issues.  Ice has begun to form on the upper reaches of the IL River.  Going home on Friday, the front end of the CIF bean market retreated and Dec bids were not readily available late in the afternoon.  CIF corn held steady to better w/ much of the trade lined up on the bid side and sellers absent.  Barge freight continued to be supported on the IL, while STL was mixed.  STL to Cairo is now max draft at 9'6", Cairo to Rosedale is 11’6”, and Rosedale- south is 12’.  River values for both corn and soybeans had a stronger week last week while processor corn bids were generally better than the previous week as producer selling slowed. Bean processor bids were fairly steady w/w and ethanol margins remain comfortable. 
 
Outside Markets this morning:
* DOW: trading slightly weaker
* Nearby crude oil: trading lower
* U.S. dollar trading flat