November 14, 2025

Morning Comments:

• Grain markets are slightly firmer ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE report. Wheat is up about a nickel, while corn and soybeans are hovering on either side of unchanged.
• Spreads are mostly firmer heading into the report. CZ/CH tightened to –13¼ overnight, and SF/SH sits at –9½ at the break. Expect spread direction to hinge on the carryout numbers in the WASDE.
• Soybean crusher values weakened yesterday as Incobrasa (Gilman, IL) lowered nearby bids by 20¢, with other crush plants following. Soybean CIF was also a touch weaker, with Nov now bid +62F.
• Ukraine struck Russia’s key Novorossiysk port overnight—a hub for Russian wheat and roughly 2% of global crude exports. Crude oil and wheat both rallied on the news amid uncertainty around potential Russian retaliation.
• Today’s USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports will be released at 11 a.m. Expectations call for slight trims to corn yield/production and the feed/residual category. Soybean yields are also expected to be cut modestly. We will send a breakdown shortly after the release.
• The USDA will also publish six weeks’ worth of daily export flash announcements at 11 a.m., coinciding with the WASDE. There is potential for China-related flashes (maybe).