December 9, 2025

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
.
It’s report day and commodities are mixed this morning. Traders are not expecting any production changes in today’s report, just demand changes. Estimates are below for reference.  The Fed’s final policy meeting of 2025 is underway and market participants are expecting a quarter-point interest rate cut.  Trump is talking tariffs again, this time signaling he may impose fresh levies on ag products including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice. Trump unveiled a $12 bln aid package for farmers hit by the trade war yesterday afternoon.  His admin approved $11 bln. in payments by the end of February.  There was an additional $1 billion earmarked for specialty crops producers not covered under other programs. Ag Sec Rollins said the money would come from the CCC and would be offset in part by revenue brought in from tariffs.  News is circulating this morning that Argy’s Economy Minister announced it was going to lower export taxes on grains again, w/ beans going from 26% to 24%, products from 24.5% to 22.5%,  wheat from 9.5% to 7.5%, and corn from 9.5% to 8.5%. It is believed the cuts will immediately go into effect but how long they will run is currently unclear.  Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons beans to China for 25/26 Monday morning.  YTD soybean inspections are off approximately 45% from LY while YTD corn inspections are up roughly 70% from a YA. December gulf loadings will be the 1st U.S. soy cargos bound for China since May. China is set to auction 512 mt’s of imported beans on December 11th, .  Some feel this is to make room for state-ordered soy purchases.  This marks Sinograin’s 1st bean auction in 3 months.  Malaysia is said to be looking for corn for Jan corn and Japan for Jan/Feb corn.  Global buyers continue to price the U.S. against Argentina.  Corn CIF backed off 2c for Dec yesterday, while Jan fell a penny.  The CIF soybean market was quiet though it felt a bit heavy late in the day.  There is talk that a few folks are long nearby and the business they have done is more pointed toward Jan, leaving them looking to sell to avoid barges sitting in NOLA, costing money as they wait to load a vessel.  Barge freight continues to be mixed, as river systems deal with logistical issues caused by winter conditions.  Ice has begun to form on the upper reaches of the IL River and water levels, overall, are also becoming concerning, given the lack of moisture.  Domestically, corn processor values were mixed Monday as was crusher bean basis.  Western corn basis fell 7¢ nearby in Muscatine while Columbus improved 2¢. Front month western bean basis was up a nickel in Council Bluffs and Des Moines.  IA Falls was a nickel weaker.  In the east, river beans basis softened with Havana down 2c and St. Louis off a penny. Crusher values were little changed other than Sidney, OH up 6¢ for Dec/Jan.  Corn processor bids were quiet and river corn was slightly weaker.  Weather in the Midwest looks to warm up a bit with less snow over the next two weeks. Most longer term forecasts still call for a cold/snowy conditions around the end of the year.
 
Other headlines this morning:
* DOW: trading higher
* Nearby crude oil: trading firmer
* U.S. dollar trading flat
*Central banks around the world slowly starting to tilt away from idea of lower interest rates
* Trump's approval rating rises as Republicans back cost-of-living efforts
* Nvidia wins Donald Trump’s approval to sell some AI chips in China
* Paramount Skydance launched hostile bid worth $108.4 ln. for Warner Bros Discovery
* Fighting between Thailand and Cambodia spreads along their contested border
* Supreme Court set to hear arguments in a challenge to federal limits on spending by political parties
* German lawmakers set to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth €52 bln next week
* Australia is set to become 1st country to implement a minimum age for social media use
* Trump warned Mexico is violating the U.S./Mexico Water Treaty
* Trump indicates he spoke with Xi “very recently” & now expects them to buy even more U.S. beans
* Argy government plans to privatize its aging rail network
* TX main power system (largest in U.S.) set to generate more power from solar than coal plants during a calendar yr
* China’s ag ministry raised its cotton consumption forecast for the 25/26 season
* AgRural: Brazil soybean planting 94% complete as of Dec. 4th
* AgRural: Brazil's corn output to slip 4.1% in 25/26 after record crop
* Argus: Ukraine’s 26/27 wheat output to rise 4% to 23.9 MMT’s
* Trump admin has removed the extra 50% surcharge on Brazilian beef