November 7, 2025

Morning Comments:

• President Trump stated that an unfavorable Supreme Court ruling on his tariffs would require an alternative “game two plan,” though other measures would take longer to implement. He confirmed no new tariff announcements until the case resolves, indicating a pause in trade actions.
• October data showed softening U.S. employment: Chicago Fed estimated unemployment at 4.36% (up from 4.35%), hiring rate for unemployed at 44.81% (down from 45.13%), and layoffs/separations at 2.10% (up slightly). Challenger reported 153,074 announced job cuts, up 175% month-over-month and the highest October in 22 years. RevelioLabs estimated a 9,100 nonfarm job decline after September’s 60,100 gain, signaling cooling amid shutdown effects
• Fed officials presented a divided view: Vice Chair Barr noted ongoing inflation progress but highlighted a “two-speed economy” and job market needs. Governor Miran anticipates a December 50-bp cut toward neutral. New York Fed’s Williams sees neutral near 1%. Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee urged caution on payroll weakness without broad deterioration. Governor Hammack views policy as barely restrictive and opposes easing, citing elevated inflation through 2026. The split pits gradual cutters against inflation hawks

• President Trump announced a major trade and investment deal with Uzbekistan, committing $35 billion in purchases and investments over three years and over $100 billion over the next decade in U.S. sectors like critical minerals, aviation, automotive parts, infrastructure, agriculture, energy, chemicals, and IT. The agreement aims to deepen economic ties and boost American exports and manufacturing.
• President Trump expressed optimism about progressing trade talks with India and confirmed plans for a near-term visit to strengthen bilateral ties, highlighting his rapport with Prime Minister Modi.
• The U.S. announced a temporary suspension of China’s reciprocal tariffs under “regular order” to stabilize trade relations. Tariffs on Chinese goods tied to fentanyl precursors were reduced to 10%, effective November 10, as part of anti-fentanyl cooperation from recent negotiations.
• Nikkei reported conflicting U.S. and Chinese interpretations of their agreement to pause rare-earth export restrictions. Washington claims Beijing will eliminate existing controls, but China has not publicly confirmed this, creating uncertainty in the trade framework.

• Corn production in Nebraska and South Dakota is straining storage, with micro-toxin reports surfacing in Nebraska. Western soybean bids were mixed: Aberdeen, SD up a nickel, Sergeant Bluff, IA and St. Joseph, MO up a dime, while Spiritwood, ND, Iowa Falls, and Burlington, IA fell a dime and nickel, respectively. Eastern processor bids held steady, but Incobrasa cut nearby bids a nickel to +0F for November. River and PNW rail bean bids dropped 2-5 cents, and central Iowa meal basis fell $5 to -30 SMZ. Corn spreads ended unchanged at -14.25, while river terminal corn bids lost 3-5 cents.