July 14, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
 

• Commodities are lower this morning as better U.S. crop ratings yesterday from NASS offers some resistance.  On Monday, NASS reported the U.S. corn crop improved 1% in the G/EX category over the prior week to 68%.  Bean conditions also improved 1% to 65%.  Corn silking was seen at 34% and soybean blooming at 50%.  Corn in the dough stage came in at 6% and 19% of the bean crop is setting pods.  Oil prices have risen to their highest level in 4 weeks ahead of today’s June inflation report as renewed U.S. restrictions on Iranian shipping escalate tensions with Tehran. Pres Trump’s reinstatement of a blockade on Iran’s ports and a 20% transit fee through the Strait of Hormuz underscores the growing battle for control of this global oil route.  Investors will closely watch today’s inflation data, particularly core inflation, for clues on the Fed’s next move. Fed officials continue to signal the need for action, and markets are pricing in a potential rate hike by year-end.  CONAB released their updated production figures for Brazil this morning, pegging Brazil’s bean production at 180.6 MMT vs. 180.3 MMT LM.  Total corn production came in at 141.7 compared to 140.5 MMT LM.  China’s soybean imports surged to a record high for June, reaching 13.6 MMT’s, driven by strong shipments from Brazil. Imports were up 10.5% from a YA and up 14.9% from May levels.  China's exports also surged more than forecast in June.  Chip and tech equipment were a large part and car exports hit a record 1 mln. in June. CIF corn remained firm to start the week as offers were sparse.  Much of the lack of selling is being attributed to a strong barge freight market, w/some spots on the river system having no visible offers shown.  New crop barge freight bids/offers were mostly flat yesterday from LW.  Bids appeared to be improving a little Dec forward.  River stages have crested STL/Cairo, and Memphis is forecast to crest mid-week.  CIF beans showed notable improvement Monday Dec thru Mar, w/ Dec up +10¢, Jan +8¢, and Feb/Mar up 7¢.  Exporters are reportedly reluctant to show FOB soybean offers, anticipating improved elevation margins from Chinese demand.  Yesterday, nearby processor corn values were steady to 2 - 5¢ lower W of the Miss River.  E corn values were little changed.  Crusher bean basis was mostly steady, other than the KC market which backed their nearby premium off a dime and Eagle Grove, Emmetsburg, and Mason City, IA all dropped a nickel.  Warm and dry conditions are expected across much of the C U.S. this week as high pressure remains in place. Forecast models continue to show the pattern shifting next week, bringing cooler temps and increased chances for rain across much of the E U.S. as a trough develops in the NE.
   
  Other headlines this morning:
  *Overnight July contract deliveries:  zero corn, 30 KC wheat, zero Chi wheat, zero soybeans, zero soyoil, 2 soymeal & 2 oats  
  * DOW: trading lower
  * U.S. earning season kicks off today w/JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs & Bank of America
  * Traders see a nearly 50% chance of a Fed rate hike
  * U.S. dollar trading weaker
  * August crude oil is up roughly $1.52/barrel, trading near $79.66
  * Low water hampers Rhine River shipping in Germany, transport costs rise
  * Ongoing Ukrainian attacks temporarily halted traffic through the Don-Azov Channel
  * Russia will fully meet grain export commitments, grain lobby says
  * IFX: Russia says it hit 2 dry bulk carriers in Ukraine’s port
  * China will allow its private oilseed crushers to buy Australian canola
  * France recorded its hottest temperature ever at 43.8°C, occurring during the critical corn pollination
  * Brazil livestock industry opposes EU-wide antimicrobial standards
  * AgRural: Brazil C-S winter corn harvest 40% complete as of Jly 9^th
  * Brazil agribusiness exports hit June record, up 14% from a year earlier
  * U.S. corn conditions improved in key states, led by OH (+9%), KY (+8%), & ND (+7%)
  * U.S. bean conditions improved w/ KY (+11%) and OH (+9%) posting the largest gains
  * U.S. winter wheat harvest est. @ 67% complete
  * U.S. spring wheat conditions up 2% on the week to 58% G/EX
  * June NOPA crush out Wed, avg est @ 203.989 mln. bu.